CCFI economic forecast to 2010:
Valley growth and unemployment

by Mary Lisa Russell

The San Joaquin Valley will face a perplexing combination of growth and unemployment, according to a comprehensive economic forecast of the Valley released by the university-sponsored Central California Futures Institute (CCFI) on Wednesday, Sept. 23.

The report provides a glance into the Valley's future growth and anticipated changes through the year 2010. For the first time, a detailed analysis outlines many of the economic and social challenges residents living between Stockton and Bakersfield will experience over the next decade.

"The Valley is facing a growth crisis," said Dr. Joseph Penbera (Craig School of Business), author of the report. "Population increases, shallow income growth and intractable high unemployment will create difficult challenges for the Valley in the years ahead."

Penbera, also an Eaton Fellow with CCFI, is nationally recognized as an expert on economic trends impacting communities. He indicates that one of the most troubling aspects of the forecast is the Valley's increasing poverty.

"The average income per person in the Valley will continue to be more than 35 percent below that found in other parts of the state," Penbera said. "Unless significant progress is made in the next few years, serious economic and social problems are imminent."

The forecast report is designed to provide businesses and government with detailed economic growth data for the nine-county San Joaquin Valley, according to Dr. John Wetzel (CCFI.)

The counties covered by the forecast report are Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare.

Wetzel said that the forecast report describes trends that will have major social, political and economic consequences for the region. Among the chief concerns are high unemployment, shallow income growth, and a renewed wave of population growth.

The CCFI is affiliated with Fresno State and operates under the direction of a board of directors composed of representatives from the nine-county service area and the Valley's major universities.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The report is available for $99 at CCFI, 550 East Shaw Avenue, Fresno, or by calling (559) 230-2234.